Data Reportby The Hanover InstituteNovember 9, 2026

Does the Media Accurately Report Israel’s Ceasefire Violations? Reading the Circulating Totals, the Endorsed Text and Each Party’s Own Record

News totals of Gaza ceasefire violations trace to party tallies. What Resolution 2803, the Board of Peace report and each side’s own records show.

Does the Media Accurately Report Israel’s Ceasefire Violations? Reading the Circulating Totals, the Endorsed Text and Each Party’s Own Record

The Board of Peace, the body Security Council resolution 2803 (2025) created to administer Gaza, reported on 15 May 2026 that violations of the October 2025 ceasefire “continue to occur on a near daily basis, some of which are serious.” That is the Board’s own account of its own implementation, and it attributes the violations to no party. Coverage that reports ongoing violations is therefore consistent with the only mandated record. The totals that put a number on Israeli violations, 1,244 in the first phase and about 2,400 over six months, are the Gaza Government Media Office’s own tally, published by a party to the conflict and carried by news outlets. For a reader who meets a number in a headline, the question the record can settle is who counted, and against what rule.

Key Findings

  • Security Council resolution 2803 (2025) was adopted on 17 November 2025 by 13 votes to 0, with 2 abstentions. It uses the word “violation” zero times in its operative paragraphs and its annexed Plan, so it sets no threshold against which a reported violation can be checked (United Nations Security Council, 2025).
  • The only report filed under that resolution is dated 15 May 2026. It says violations occur “on a near daily basis, some of which are serious” and gives no total, rate or attribution. It is the Board of Peace’s own account of its own implementation (Board of Peace, 2026).
  • The Israel Defense Forces’ compilation of incidents attributed to Hamas carried 61 dated headings on 10 September 2026. That is a count of headings on one page, not of violations, and the page is published by a party to the conflict with no total (Israel Defense Forces, 2026).
  • Gaza’s Ministry of Health reported 1,359 deaths “since the ceasefire of 11 October” on 10 September 2026. This is its own count as a party to the conflict, not independently verified, and it counts casualties rather than violations (Ministry of Health, Gaza, 2026).
  • A 2009 press analysis attributed 79% of conflict pauses between 2000 and 2008 to Israeli killings, counting killings only (Kanwisher, Haushofer and Biletzki, 2009). The Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, counting rockets and mortar shells, recorded 329 during the 2008 lull (Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, 2008).

Are the violation totals in the news independently verified counts?

The Gaza Government Media Office is the origin of the most widely quoted total: about 2,400 Israeli violations over the ceasefire’s first six months. The office belongs to the authority governing Gaza, which makes it a party to the conflict. The figure is that office’s own tally on its own definitions, relayed through press outlets. It is not an independently verified count.

It is often said that Israel has violated the Gaza ceasefire thousands of times. Al Jazeera reported on 23 November 2025 that Israel had violated the truce nearly 500 times in 44 days, and later put the figure at more than 2,400. Both figures were attributed to the same media office. The office also produced a first-phase total of 1,244. Those totals reach readers through Al Jazeera, Middle East Eye and The New Arab. No publication of them on any Palestinian government website was located when those hosts were searched on 10 September 2026.

The record shows two ways of presenting the same office’s figures. A Guardian report of 18 October 2025 carried the office’s figure of 47 violations and 38 Palestinians killed, with “says Gaza media office” inside its headline (The Guardian, 2025). There, the counting body travels with the number. Where a total appears without its counting body, a party’s tally reaches the reader in the form of a fact.

Figure Window Counting body
47 violations, 38 killed to 18 October 2025 Gaza Government Media Office, a party
nearly 500 violations first 44 days Gaza Government Media Office, a party
1,244 violations first phase Gaza Government Media Office, a party
about 2,400 violations about six months Gaza Government Media Office, a party

Source: The Guardian, 2025, and press relays of the Gaza Government Media Office’s totals. No government-hosted publication of these totals was located (searched 10 September 2026).

The four figures cover four different windows and cannot be added together. None states a threshold for what was counted as a violation. Each was counted by one party about the other. The question of how many times the ceasefire has been violated therefore has party answers on the record, and those answers come labelled by who produced them.

Who says coverage of ceasefire violations is skewed, and since when?

Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs wrote on its official X account on 14 June 2026 that “Media coverage of Israel in the context of Hezbollah’s attacks from Lebanon has been deeply skewed and misleading.” The post named seven outlets: AP, Reuters, The New York Times, CNN, NBC, CBC and France 24. It is the stated position of a party to the conflict on how it is covered, dated and on the record (@IsraelMFA, 2026).

The charge is specific. The post says those outlets “have overwhelmingly focused on the Lebanese side of the story.” It describes Hezbollah as “launching thousands of attacks on communities in northern Israel,” which is the ministry’s own characterisation and count. It also cites a study: “An analysis conducted between June 3-10 of 750 articles published across 14 leading international media outlets found that Israeli civilian.” The captured text ends there. The post as read names no publisher for the analysis, and gives no finding beyond those words. The complaint concerns the Lebanon front, not the Gaza ceasefire.

The same directional complaint appears from organisations outside government. HonestReporting is an Israel-focused media-monitoring organisation that describes its mission as countering bias against Israel in the media. It published “Ceasefires in Name Only: How the Media Ignores Hamas and Hezbollah Violations,” reprinted by The Algemeiner on 15 January 2026 (HonestReporting, 2026). The title states its argument: coverage underweights violations by Hamas and Hezbollah.

The opposite complaint is also on the record, in peer-reviewed form. An article in Third World Quarterly argued in 2025 that Western legacy outlets underreported documented Israeli military violations and failed to challenge Israeli official claims sufficiently (Third World Quarterly, 2025). As published in summary, it reports no count of stories, no underreporting rate and no comparison with violations attributed to Hamas.

So the charge of skew has been made in both directions:

  • by a government that is a party to the conflict;
  • by an advocacy monitor;
  • in a peer-reviewed journal.

Each item is dated and named. None of the three publishes a measured rate at which outlets reported violations correctly. The 750-article analysis is the only quantified study referenced, and its finding sits beyond the end of the post’s captured text.

Is there an official benchmark reporters could check a violation against?

United Nations Security Council resolution 2803, adopted on 17 November 2025, contains the word “violation” zero times. That holds for its operative paragraphs and for its annexed Comprehensive Plan alike. The instrument defines no violation, sets no threshold, names no body to find one, and attaches no consequence to one (United Nations Security Council, 2025).

The resolution passed 13 votes to 0, with China and the Russian Federation abstaining, according to the verbatim record of the 10046th meeting. Operative paragraph 1 “calls on all parties to implement it in its entirety, including maintenance of the ceasefire, in good faith and without delay.” The annexed Plan never uses the word “ceasefire.” At point 3 it says “the war will immediately end,” that “all military operations, including aerial and artillery bombardment, will be suspended,” and that “battle lines will remain frozen.” The word enters the record through the Council’s endorsement, not the Plan’s terms. This report reads what the instrument defines on the text alone.

Term Operative paragraphs Annex 1, the Plan Source
“violation” 0 0 S/RES/2803 (2025)
“breach” 0 0 S/RES/2803 (2025)
“ceasefire” 3 0 S/RES/2803 (2025)

The monitoring mandate is a single clause. Under paragraph 7(A), the International Stabilization Force shall “assist the BoP in monitoring the implementation of the ceasefire in Gaza.” The clause carries no duty to count, classify, attribute or publish. The Board of Peace’s own report of 15 May 2026 describes the force in the future tense: “Preparations for deployment are well advanced.” Paragraph 38 of the same report adds: “Efforts are ongoing in force generation and deployment.”

The one reporting duty sits in paragraph 10, which requests “a written report on progress” every six months. The report filed under it quantifies violations in one phrase, “near daily basis,” and gives no total or attribution beyond that (Board of Peace, 2026). The resolution asked for a progress report, and the report delivered one. A journalist checking a violation claim against the endorsed instrument finds no definition to check it against.

Can a reporter turn Israel’s published incident list into a total?

The Israel Defense Forces’ page “A broken record on repeat: Major Ceasefire Violations,” dated 19 February 2026, carried 61 dated headings when read on 10 September 2026. That is a count of headings on one page on one date, not a count of violations. The page is published by a party to the conflict and states no total, rate or denominator (Israel Defense Forces, 2026).

The page describes its own scope: “the following announcements are IDF press releases addressing each ceasefire violation by Hamas since the start of the agreement.” The entries run from 19 October 2025 to 14 February 2026. The page makes no claim to be complete. It records only violations attributed to Hamas and Palestinian armed groups, and none by Israel.

The threshold is the IDF’s own. The page states that “All these activities constitute a clear violation of the understandings of the ceasefire.” A typical entry, dated 20 October 2025, reads: “the IDF identified several terrorists who crossed the yellow line and approached IDF troops operating in the Shejaiya area, posing an immediate threat to them.” The words “terrorists,” “eliminated” and “immediate threat” belong to the IDF’s releases.

The page’s own dates do not run in order. Nineteen entries in the November block carry the year 2026, from “November 8” to “November 29.” They sit between entries stamped October 2025 and December 2025, on a page dated February 2026. Those nineteen are November 2025 entries printed with the wrong year. Any timeline built from the page has to correct for that.

The line named in most entries is not in the endorsed text. Resolution 2803 (2025) and its annexed Plan never mention a “yellow line.” Point 3 of the Plan says only that “Israeli forces will withdraw to the agreed upon line” (United Nations Security Council, 2025). The yellow line is an implementation arrangement between the parties, and no published instrument located defines or maps it.

A reporter who counted the page’s headings and printed the result as “Hamas violations” would be presenting a total the IDF itself does not publish. What the page supports is a list of incidents, each one the IDF’s own characterisation of the other party’s conduct.

Has any non-party body published a ceasefire violation rate?

A US Central Command spokesman gave the only violation rate on record from outside the two parties: about 18 violations a day in October 2025, falling below 10 a day in November. The figure circulates as relayed by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington research institute, rather than in a Department of Defense publication.

The relay matters for attribution. When centcom.mil, war.gov and defense.gov were searched on 10 September 2026, no Department of Defense document carrying the figure was located. Central Command’s own announcement of the Civil-Military Coordination Center no longer resolves to its text and returns a media landing page. A news report carrying the 18-a-day figure can attribute it to a spokesman, through a named relayer. It cannot attribute it to a published official series.

The United States is not a party to the conflict, but it is not a disinterested observer either. Resolution 2803 (2025) was adopted on a United States draft. Its preamble names the United States, Qatar, Egypt and Türkiye as having “facilitated the ceasefire” (United Nations Security Council, 2025). The coordination body the spokesman’s command sits within is described in the Board of Peace’s report of 15 May 2026: “The Civil-Military Coordination Centre (CMCC), established on 17 October 2025, has served as the principal operational mechanism for this function during the reporting period, involving 50 partner nations and organizations” (Board of Peace, 2026).

The other bodies that could publish a rate have not done so:

  • The Board of Peace. It is the transitional administration the resolution created, chaired by the President of the United States. Its only report says “near daily basis” and stops there.
  • The International Stabilization Force. It holds the paragraph 7(A) monitoring mandate but had not deployed by May 2026, so it has published nothing.

The record therefore holds one non-party rate, from a guarantor’s military, reaching readers secondhand.

When reports cite a ceasefire death toll, whose count is it?

Gaza’s Ministry of Health reported 1,359 deaths since “the ceasefire of 11 October” in its daily report of 10 September 2026. That is the ministry’s own count as a party to the conflict, not independently verified. It records people killed. It is not a count of violations, and it does not tell the reader which party breached what (Ministry of Health, Gaza, 2026).

The same report records 4,571 injuries since the ceasefire and 831 people recovered from the rubble. The ministry calls the dead “martyrs,” a term that is its own. Cumulatively, its 10 September 2026 report gives 73,670 deaths since October 2023. The ministry has stated its own exclusions since 7 January 2024. Among them, the missing and those under rubble, and burials made by families without passing through a hospital, are not counted. Those exclusions travel with every figure the ministry publishes.

Source: Ministry of Health, Gaza, 2026. A party’s own count, not independently verified.

The two parties start their clocks a day apart. The ministry counts from 11 October. The IDF page states that the agreement “came into effect” on “Friday, October 10th, 2025, at 12:00 PM” (Israel Defense Forces, 2026). In the Security Council’s verbatim record of 17 November 2025, Denmark said “the ceasefire entered into force on 10 October.” A death toll “since the ceasefire” therefore carries the ministry’s start date, not the date the other party and the Council record give.

The ministry’s numbers and the media office’s numbers also come from different offices of the same authority, and they count different things. The 1,359 is deaths. The 2,400 is violations. Neither can be derived from the other. A report that sets a death toll beside a violation total is placing two counts with different objects, both from one party, side by side.

How did a widely read 2009 press analysis decide who broke truces?

Kanwisher, Haushofer and Biletzki wrote in The Huffington Post on 6 February 2009 that 79% of conflict pauses between September 2000 and October 2008 “were interrupted when Israel killed a Palestinian.” The piece is commentary with original analysis, not peer-reviewed. It defined a pause as one or more days with no killing on either side, and it counted killings only (Kanwisher, Haushofer and Biletzki, 2009).

The remaining pauses split two ways: “only 8% were interrupted by Palestinian attacks,” with 13% interrupted by both sides on the same day. The fatality data came from B’Tselem. Because the counting rule measured killings, a rocket that killed no one did not end a pause. The earlier history of seven truces since 2008 turns on exactly this choice of what to count.

Source: Kanwisher, Haushofer and Biletzki, 2009, The Huffington Post; commentary, not peer-reviewed.

Counting rockets gives the 2008 lull a different shape. The Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, an Israeli research institute, recorded 329 rockets and mortar shells during the six-month lull, most after 4 November. It set that against 2,278 in the six months before (Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, 2008). The Center wrote that on 4 November “the IDF carried out a military action close to the border security fence on the Gazan side to prevent an abduction planned by Hamas,” and that “Seven Hamas terrorist operatives were killed.” Its summary of 1 January 2009 gave a lull total of 362, with 324 between 4 November and 19 December (Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, 2009). So the same body published two different totals for the same period.

Peer-reviewed work measures sequence in both directions. Haushofer, Biletzki and Kanwisher (2010) found that “the firing of Palestinian rockets increases sharply after Israelis kill Palestinians.” They also found that “the probability (although not the number) of killings of Israelis by Palestinians increases after killings of Palestinians by Israel,” while replicating Israeli responses to Palestinian killings. Golan and Rosenblatt (2011) published a critique of that study in the same journal. All of this research measures ordering in time, not legal responsibility. A killings-only rule and a rockets rule, applied to one truce, assign its breakdown to different sides.

Methodology and limitations

The evidence was assembled from four source types, each labelled in the text where it is used.

Primary and official records. These are resolution 2803 (2025) and the recorded vote in S/PV.10046, and the Board of Peace report S/2026/418, the only report filed under paragraph 10 as of 10 September 2026. The full text of the resolution and its annex was searched without regard to case for “violation,” “breach,” “enforce,” “sanction” and “ceasefire.” Resolution 1860 (2009) and the 2014 record of Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs support the questions below.

Parties’ own publications. These were read directly and labelled as such:

  • the Israel Defense Forces’ compiled page, with headings counted as read on 10 September 2026;
  • the Gaza Ministry of Health’s daily report of 10 September 2026;
  • the 14 June 2026 post by Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, whose captured text ends mid-sentence.

Peer-reviewed research. This includes Haushofer and colleagues (2010), the Golan and Rosenblatt critique (2011), Jaeger and Paserman (2008, characterised from its abstract), and an article in Third World Quarterly (2025, characterised from its published summary).

Monitoring and commentary sources. These are HonestReporting, labelled with its mission; the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, an Israeli research institute reporting its own counts; and the 2009 commentary by Kanwisher, Haushofer and Biletzki, which is not peer-reviewed. Al Jazeera, Middle East Eye, The New Arab, The Algemeiner and B’Tselem are named as relayers or data holders and are not used as evidence.

Government hosts searched. On 10 September 2026 the following were searched: centcom.mil, war.gov and defense.gov; gov.il, mfa.gov.il and idf.il; moh.gov.ps; and the Official Document System for documents issued under resolution 2803 (2025). The Gaza Government Media Office totals were not located on any Palestinian government host. The Central Command figure was not located on any Department of Defense host and is cited as relayed.

Limitations. No body publishes a measured rate at which news coverage reports ceasefire violations accurately. The media-coverage material in this record measures framing and argument, not verification of individual incidents. The 2008 to 2009 research predates the October 2025 ceasefire by more than fifteen years and measures a different arrangement. A second Board of Peace report was due around 15 November 2026, so no trend across reporting periods can be drawn.

Conclusion

So does the media accurately report Israel’s ceasefire violations? On this record, accuracy turns on attribution. The numbers attached to Israel come from one party, and the instrument they are measured against defines nothing.

The portrait the evidence draws is consistent across every count read:

  • The about 2,400 total is the Gaza Government Media Office’s own tally, a party’s count, relayed rather than published on a government host.
  • The IDF’s 61 headings are a party’s list, not a total.
  • The Gaza ministry’s 1,359 deaths are its own count of the dead, not of breaches.
  • The endorsed resolution says “violation” zero times, and the mandated reporter says “near daily” and gives no number.
  • The one outside rate, about 18 a day, arrives secondhand.
  • The 79% from 2009 rests on a rule that counted killings and not rockets.

The record does not support reading any of these as a neutral measure.

What this sharpens is a question about the public record itself. When every quantified account of a ceasefire comes from a side, a relayer or a rule chosen in advance, a reader is left to weigh what a headline number can carry once the name of its counting body has been trimmed off. The answer bears on how a society argues about a war it watches mostly through other people’s tallies.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did earlier Gaza truces have written terms?

The Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center wrote in December 2008 that the 2008 lull “was based on unwritten understandings.” The same Center reported in November 2012 that the understandings ending that round were posted as text on the Egyptian president’s Facebook page (Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, 2012). Written terms are therefore a recent feature of Gaza ceasefires.

Has Israel published a breach record for earlier truces?

Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs published a “non-exhaustive” table of eight 2014 suspensions in a 2015 report, attributing each breach to Hamas (Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2015). It is a party’s own account. The 2026 IDF page follows the same one-sided format.

What did the Security Council call for in the 2009 Gaza war?

Resolution 1860, adopted on 8 January 2009 by 14 votes to 0 with the United States abstaining, called for “an immediate, durable and fully respected ceasefire” (United Nations Security Council, 2009). Like resolution 2803 (2025), it named no counter of violations.

Who are the “independent monitors” in the Gaza Plan?

Point 13 of the annexed Plan places the demilitarization of Gaza “under the supervision of independent monitors” (United Nations Security Council, 2025). Both mentions concern weapons decommissioning, not the ceasefire. The Plan does not say who the monitors are or what they publish.

Does peer-reviewed research find a tit-for-tat cycle?

Jaeger and Paserman (2008) analysed daily fatalities from September 2000 to January 2005. They found “evidence of Granger causality from Palestinian to Israeli violence, but not vice versa,” and “no evidence” of a predictable tit-for-tat cycle. That finding comes from the abstract, and it measures timing rather than responsibility.

How many hostages were returned under the first phase?

The Board of Peace reported in May 2026 that of 251 people taken captive on 7 October 2023, 168 were returned alive. It also reported that the last deceased hostage was recovered on 26 January 2026 (Board of Peace, 2026). These figures are the Board’s own account.

When is the next mandated report on the ceasefire due?

Resolution 2803 (2025) requests a Board of Peace report “every six months” (United Nations Security Council, 2025). The first was dated 15 May 2026, which put the second around 15 November 2026. That timing determines when the record can next show change.

Sources

  • @IsraelMFA, 2026. Post on X of 14 June 2026. X. https://x.com/IsraelMFA/status/2066114426478956575. Official statement of a party to the conflict.
  • Board of Peace, 2026. Implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2803 (2025): Report of the Board of Peace through the Office of the High Representative for Gaza. S/2026/418, 15 May 2026. https://documents.un.org/api/symbol/access?s=S/2026/418&l=E&t=pdf. Official record (the mandated report; the Board’s own account of its own implementation).
  • Golan, D., and Rosenblatt, J. D., 2011. Critique of Haushofer, Biletzki and Kanwisher (2010). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108(15). DOI 10.1073/pnas.1016378108. Peer-reviewed correspondence.
  • Haushofer, J., Biletzki, A., and Kanwisher, N., 2010. Both sides retaliate in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107(42), 17927 to 17932. DOI 10.1073/pnas.1012115107. Peer-reviewed.
  • HonestReporting, 2026. Ceasefires in Name Only: How the Media Ignores Hamas and Hezbollah Violations. HonestReporting. https://honestreporting.com/ceasefires-in-name-only-how-the-media-ignores-hamas-and-hezbollah-violations/. Monitoring or advocacy organization.
  • Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, 2008. The Six Months of the Lull Arrangement. 19 December 2008. https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/18366. Israeli research institute; its own count.
  • Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, 2009. Summary of rocket fire and mortar shelling in 2008. 1 January 2009. Israeli research institute; its own count.
  • Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, 2012. Operation Pillar of Defense, Update No. 8. 21 November 2012. Israeli research institute.
  • Israel Defense Forces, 2026. A broken record on repeat: Major Ceasefire Violations. Page dated 19 February 2026. https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/israel-hamas-war-gaza/articles-israel-hamas-war-gaza/a-broken-record-on-repeat-major-ceasefire-violations/. Official record of a party to the conflict.
  • Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2015. The 2014 Gaza Conflict: Factual and Legal Aspects, Chapter VI, paragraphs 394 to 396. Official record of a party to the conflict.
  • Jaeger, D. A., and Paserman, M. D., 2008. The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict. American Economic Review 98(4), 1591 to 1604. DOI 10.1257/aer.98.4.1591. Peer-reviewed (abstract-sourced).
  • Kanwisher, N., Haushofer, J., and Biletzki, A., 2009. Reigniting Violence: How Do Ceasefires End? The Huffington Post, 6 February 2009. Commentary with original analysis, not peer-reviewed.
  • Ministry of Health, Gaza, 2026. Daily statistical report of 10 September 2026, message 7607. Ministry of Health media office channel, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza. Official record of a party to the conflict; not independently verified.
  • The Guardian, 2025. Israel has violated ceasefire 47 times and killed 38 Palestinians, says Gaza media office. 18 October 2025. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/18/israel-has-violated-ceasefire-47-times-and-killed-38-palestinians-says-gaza-media-office. News report.
  • Third World Quarterly, 2025. Western media’s ethical collapse: silencing Gaza’s voice. Taylor and Francis. DOI 10.1080/01436597.2025.2552361. Peer-reviewed.
  • United Nations Security Council, 2009. Resolution 1860 (2009), adopted 8 January 2009 by recorded vote of 14 to 0, United States abstaining. S/RES/1860 (2009); verbatim record S/PV.6063. Official record (instrument and recorded vote).
  • United Nations Security Council, 2025. Resolution 2803 (2025), endorsing the Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict, with the Plan as Annex 1; recorded vote 13 to 0 with 2 abstentions. S/RES/2803 (2025), 17 November 2025; verbatim record S/PV.10046. https://docs.un.org/en/S/RES/2803(2025). Official record (instrument and recorded vote).

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