Data Reportby The Hanover InstituteAugust 13, 2026

Did Zionism Come at the Expense of Arab People? Reading the Displacement Counts, the Founding Text and Israel’s Own Statistics

A UN commission estimated 710,000 Palestinians driven out in 1948 to 1949. What the counts, the founding text and the court record hold.

Did Zionism Come at the Expense of Arab People? Reading the Displacement Counts, the Founding Text and Israel’s Own Statistics

For Palestinian Arabs, the record answers yes, and the closest thing to an official figure is the United Nations Conciliation Commission for Palestine’s estimate that 710,000 Palestinians were driven out of the country during 1948 and 1949. Benny Morris, working from Israeli military and state archives, puts the displacement at roughly 700,000 and attributes it to causes that varied by locality and phase, rejecting both a single master expulsion plan and the account that departures were voluntary. The shares that circulate alongside those counts, 80% of the Arab population, roughly half, four-fifths of the land, are shares of different denominators, and the difference is the whole of the argument between texts. The question underneath the phrase is therefore whose cost, over which period, and measured against what base.

Key Findings

  • The United Nations Conciliation Commission for Palestine estimated that 710,000 Palestinians were driven out of the country and 40,000 were displaced within it during 1948 and 1949.
  • Morris (2004), an archival history drawn from Israeli military and state records, attributes the exodus to military attack, fear of attack, expulsions in certain sectors, and flight, varying by locality and phase, and rejects both a single expulsion plan and the claim of voluntary departure.
  • Israel’s Declaration of the Establishment of the State of Israel, read on 14 May 1948, appeals to “the Arab inhabitants of the State of Israel” to participate “on the basis of full and equal citizenship and due representation”; Basic Law: Israel as the Nation-State of the Jewish People, enacted in 2018, states in clause 1(c) that “the realization of the right to national self-determination in the State of Israel is exclusive to the Jewish People”; the Supreme Court dismissed the petitions against that law in HCJ 5555/18 on 8 July 2021.
  • Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics counts 2.157 million Arabs in a population of 10.244 million, 21.1%, in its preliminary estimate for 22 April 2026, its own count of its own residents.
  • Becker, Ascone and Troschke (2022) coded 1,504 comments on leading British media Facebook pages after the May 2021 escalation and found 26.9% antisemitic; within those, 7.7% denied Jewish self-determination and 27.9% assigned Israel sole guilt.

How many Palestinian Arabs were displaced in 1948?

The United Nations Conciliation Commission for Palestine, established by the General Assembly in December 1948 to address the refugee question, estimated that 710,000 Palestinians were driven out of the country in 1948 and 1949. That is the largest single figure in the official record for the war, and it is an estimate produced by a commission rather than an enumeration produced by a census.

The same estimate records a further 40,000 people displaced inside the country. Morris (2004), the archival history of the refugee problem drawn from Israeli military and state archives, carries roughly 700,000 as its own figure and describes an exodus with multiple causes that differed by district and by phase of the fighting: military attack, fear of attack, expulsions in specific sectors, and flight.

Source: United Nations Conciliation Commission for Palestine estimate.

Al-Qudsi (2000), in the International Migration journal, profiles the population that descends from that displacement, comparing refugee and non-refugee Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza and finding refugees somewhat better educated than non-refugees while showing only slightly higher fertility. The publisher gates the full text, so the comparison is carried at the level the paper states it.

One limit sits under every figure in this section. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics has conducted three censuses, in 1997, 2007 and 2017, and its own documentation records that Palestinian figures for years before 1997 have no census basis, being modeled or back-estimated. The 1948 counts are therefore estimates by construction, and the historians and commissions that produced them say so.

Is it often said Zionism dispossessed Palestine’s Arab population?

It is often said that Zionism dispossessed Palestine’s Arab population, and the share most often attached to that statement is 80%. A 2026 article in Theoretical Inquiries in Law describes the Zionist movement as a settler-colonial project that, from the late 19th century through 1948, displaced roughly 80% of the indigenous Palestinian Arab inhabitants within the territory that became the state.

A scholarly review published in Project MUSE of Nur Masalha’s Expulsion of the Palestinians: The Concept of “Transfer” in Zionist Political Thought records the book’s argument that Zionist policy led to the exile of 80% of Palestine’s Arab population in 1948. The two figures read as the same number and are not: one is a share of the Arab population of Mandate Palestine, the other a share of those living inside the territory the state came to hold. The Institute for Palestine Studies, a research institute with a stated Palestinian-studies mission, publishes a different pairing again, roughly half the Palestinian Arab population displaced and about four-fifths of the land occupied, one a population share and one a land share, on its own definitions. The registered-ownership figures behind land shares of that kind are a separate record, examined in the Institute’s report on who owned the land of Palestine.

On direction the named sources converge. For Palestinian Arabs, the 1948 outcome was displacement on the scale of hundreds of thousands, and Morris (2004) and Ilan Pappé (2006), who disagree about cause as sharply as any two historians of the period, both work from roughly the same order of magnitude. What varies between texts is the denominator, and a denominator for 1948 cannot be drawn from a census, because none exists for Mandate Palestine’s Arab population in the Palestinian statistical record. A reader who moves between a percentage and an absolute count is therefore moving between an estimate divided by a reconstruction and an estimate standing alone.

Which Arab populations does the documented record actually cover?

The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics counted 4,780,978 residents of the West Bank and Gaza on 1 December 2017, the third and most recent of its censuses.

That total comprised 2,881,687 residents in the West Bank and 1,899,291 in Gaza, and it is the measured base every later figure in either series projects from.

Every later total in the Palestinian, World Bank and UN series is a projection off that measured base.

Source: Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, 2018; Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, 2026; each body's own count.

The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics reports Gaza at about 2.13 million at the end of 2025, a decline it puts at approximately 254,000 people and 10.6% against its pre-aggression population estimates, attributed to war-related deaths, missing persons, reduced births and forced out-migration. The same brief reports roughly 2.2 million people living in Gaza on the eve of the war, a separate quantity from the base the percentage is drawn against, and nearly two million of them displaced. These are the Bureau’s estimates, not an enumeration.

The refugee population is distributed across more territory than either series covers. Hababeh and colleagues (2018), in a Lancet conference abstract, surveyed Palestine refugee mothers at clinics in the West Bank, Gaza, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria between June and December 2015, five fields in five jurisdictions counted by five different authorities.

Inside Israel, the Central Bureau of Statistics counts 2.157 million Arabs, a category it defines as Moslems, Arab Christians and Druze. No single published series counts Arab populations across these jurisdictions as one denominator, which is why a claim about “Arab people” resolves, in the record, into several separately counted populations with separate histories.

What did Arab leaders warn about land sales before 1948?

An Arab memorandum from the Mandate period, reproduced by the University of North Carolina at Greensboro, warned that continued land purchase and Jewish immigration, combined with a refusal to employ Arabs on Jewish-owned land and in Jewish enterprises, would produce a landless Arab proletariat. The document states a mechanism, in the words of a party to the dispute, before the war that produced the displacement counts above.

That mechanism has two components and they are separable. One is transfer of title, which the land registers of the Mandate record. The other is access to work on land once transferred, which no register records at all. The memorandum’s own emphasis falls on the second, the combination of purchase with exclusion from employment, and it is the combination rather than either half that the document says produces landlessness.

The memorandum is a position paper, not a measurement. It carries no survey, no sample and no count of dispossessed families, and it was written to persuade the Mandate authorities. Its evidentiary value is what a contemporaneous Arab statement of the mechanism says, dated to the period in question, which is a different and narrower thing than evidence of how far the mechanism operated. Registered-ownership shares for the period are held in the land records rather than in the political correspondence, and the Institute reads those registers separately.

What did Israel’s founding declaration promise Arab inhabitants?

The Declaration of the Establishment of the State of Israel, read on 14 May 1948 and published in Official Gazette Number 1, appeals “to the Arab inhabitants of the State of Israel to preserve peace and participate in the upbuilding of the State on the basis of full and equal citizenship and due representation in all its provisional and permanent institutions.”

The document also pledges “complete equality of social and political rights” and guarantees “freedom of religion, conscience, language, education and culture.”

That equality sentence exists in two official English texts that differ on one word. The Knesset publishes it as equality of rights “to all its citizens irrespective of religion, race or sex”; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs publishes the same sentence with “all its inhabitants.” Both are Israeli government publications and both are translations of the Hebrew original, so the wording quoted has to be named rather than presented as the text.

Seventy years later the Knesset enacted Basic Law: Israel as the Nation-State of the Jewish People. Its clause 1(c) states that “the realization of the right to national self-determination in the State of Israel is exclusive to the Jewish People,” and clause 4 provides that “Hebrew is the language of the State” while “Arabic has a special status in the State,” with nothing in the article compromising Arabic’s practical status before the law came into force. The Knesset labels its English translation unofficial.

Fifteen petitions challenged the law. On 8 July 2021, an eleven-justice panel of the Supreme Court sitting as High Court of Justice dismissed them in HCJ 5555/18, Hasson v. Knesset, upholding the Basic Law while holding that the Knesset as constituent authority is “not all powerful” and has no authority, even by Basic Law, to deny the state’s core character as Jewish and democratic. Both halves of that ruling are in the judgment: the law stands, and the Court set a limit it could have breached. The statutory sequence from 1948 to 2018 is traced further in the Institute’s report on the 1948 Declaration and Jewish supremacy claims.

What do Israel’s own statistics record about Arab citizens today?

Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics counts 2.157 million Arabs among its population, according to its preliminary estimate for 22 April 2026.

This figure represents 21.1% of the 10.244 million residents recorded by the Central Bureau of Statistics, alongside 7.790 million Jews and Others at 76% and 296,000 foreigners at 2.9%.

These are the state’s own compiled counts of its own population, not an independently verified tally.

Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, Independence Day 2026 media release, preliminary.

The Bureau reports the three groups it folds into “Arabs” separately. Its 2022 release on the Moslem population records 1.707 million Moslems at the end of 2021, 18.1% of all residents, including 362,000 in Jerusalem, where they were 37.5% of the city’s residents. Its February 2024 release records approximately 152,000 Druze. Its December 2025 Christmas release gives a preliminary 184,200 Christians, 1.9% of the population, of whom 78.7% were Arab Christians at the end of 2024, and notes that the estimate excludes Christians absent from the Population Register.

The same releases carry outcome measures that differ sharply between the groups the Bureau counts. Labour force participation among Moslems aged 15 and over was 39.3% in 2021; among Christians it was 67.7% in 2024, and 56.9% among Christian Arabs. Life expectancy among Moslems in 2021 was 75.8 years for men and 80.7 for women, against national figures of 80.7 and 84.8 for 2022. Christian 12th-grade students reached matriculation eligibility at 87.7% in the 2024/25 school year. Two scope choices sit under all of it: the Bureau counts East Jerusalem residents and West Bank settlers inside Israel’s total, and its 2022 Moslem release notes a lack of available data for many educational institutions in East Jerusalem.

How does the record treat Jews from Arab countries?

Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics records that 36.9% of the approximately 120,000 Holocaust survivors living in Israel at the beginning of 2025 were born in Asian and African countries.

Within that group, the Bureau records 16.8% born in Morocco, 10.9% in Iraq, described by the Bureau as persons who underwent the Farhud, and 6.6% in Tunisia and Libya.

The category covers people recognized as victims of antisemitic persecution outside Europe, which is why the Bureau reports it this way.

The same release records that of the 7.1 million Jews in Israel at the beginning of 2024, 5.7 million were born in Israel and 1.4 million abroad, of whom 1.0 million were born in Europe or the Americas and 275,000 in Africa. Sergio DellaPergola’s own estimates, published in the American Jewish Year Book 2024 and hosted by the Bureau, put the world core Jewish population at 15,736,800 on 1 January 2024 and Israel’s at 7,153,000, his figures rather than an official count.

It is often said that Zionism and Israeli policy devalued the Arab identity of Jews from Arab countries. Leibler (2014), in Social Studies of Science, documents the administrative side of that claim: how demographic expertise, pro-natal advocacy and the systematization of ethnic categories, including “Mizrahi,” intersected with state formation before 1948, establishing demographic statistics and ethnic classification as politically entangled in the region from the outset.

What the official series measure is origin, not attitude toward origin. The Bureau’s 2023 release on the population of Ethiopian origin shows the convention in operation: 168,800 residents of Ethiopian origin at the end of 2022, comprising 92,100 born in Ethiopia and 76,800 born in Israel to an Ethiopian-born father, with a further 6,144 Israeli-born residents whose mother was born in Ethiopia sitting outside that total. No published Israeli statistical series measures how an origin group’s identity was valued, so the claim about devaluation is answered in this record by scholarship on classification and by nothing in the statistics.

Do historians agree displacement was inherent to Zionism?

The named historians agree on the order of magnitude and disagree on the cause, and the disagreement is specific enough to quote. Morris (2004), working from Israeli military and state archives, attributes the exodus to causes varying by locality and phase, and rejects both a single master expulsion plan and the account that departures were voluntary.

Nur Masalha’s Expulsion of the Palestinians, as recorded in a scholarly review published in Project MUSE, traces “transfer” as a recurring concept in Zionist political thought before 1948, which places intent in the ideas rather than in a single operational order. Ilan Pappé's The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine (2006) states the strongest form of the planned reading in its title, arguing the 1948 displacement was a planned ethnic cleansing; Pappé states a moral position in the work, and the book is the named home of that characterisation.

A 2026 article in Theoretical Inquiries in Law applies the settler-colonial category to the movement and reads the displacement as its consequence. A 2026 article in Israel Affairs, “Zionism’s flipside: a reconsideration of settler colonialism,” reconsiders where that category fits the case and where it does not. Two peer-reviewed venues in the same year therefore hold the framework question open in print.

Three claims are separable here, and collapsing them is what makes the historiography look like a single yes or no. Whether displacement occurred at scale in 1948 is a question the archives and the commission estimate answer. Whether it followed from a plan is a question about documents and orders, on which Morris and Pappé read the same archives to opposite conclusions. Whether it was inherent to the movement’s aims is a question about ideas, which is where Masalha’s evidence sits and where no archive can settle it. The Institute’s separate reading of the 1948 archives and votes is set out in its report on Palestinian expulsion and the 1948 record.

How does the at-the-expense framing appear in measured discourse?

Becker, Ascone and Troschke (2022) coded 1,504 comments on the Facebook pages of leading UK media outlets reacting to the May 2021 escalation and found 26.9% antisemitic against an IHRA-based scheme.

The same study found 12.6% of 1,500 French comments and 13.6% of 1,520 German comments antisemitic against the same scheme, according to Becker, Ascone and Troschke (2022).

Within the UK antisemitic comments, 27.9% assigned Israel sole guilt, 7.7% denied Jewish self-determination, 5.2% used the apartheid analogy and 4.2% a Nazi analogy.

Source: Becker, Ascone and Troschke, 2022, peer-reviewed.

The authors also report that thread context was needed to infer the antisemitic meaning in 38.7% of the UK antisemitic comments, so the coding rests on conversations rather than isolated sentences.

Two survey literatures measure how attitudes toward Israel relate to attitudes toward Jews, and both are correlational. Harber, Bulska, Malloy and Vila (2026), in three preregistered studies reported in American Psychologist and carried here from the abstract, found their Conspiracies Mediated Model of New Antisemitism accounted for over 55% of the variance in anti-Israel attitudes, with conspiracy beliefs implicating Israel and Zionists mediating the association between antisemitism and anti-Israel attitudes, while conspiracy beliefs about Jews unrelated to Israel did not. Ozer, Obaidi and Bergh (2025), in two British experiments with 354 and 490 participants, report two separate pathways to anti-Jewish hostility, one running through social dominance orientation and one through out-group identity fusion with the Palestinian people.

None of these measures says anything about the truth of the historical claim in this report’s title. What they measure is the discourse in which the claim travels: which framings appear in samples coded as antisemitic, at what shares, and what attitudes those framings coincide with, in the authors’ own correlational terms.

Methodology and limitations

This report answers a historical and definitional question with named sources in the Institute’s evidence hierarchy, in that order: primary and official records (the 1948 Declaration in Official Gazette Number 1, Basic Law: Israel as the Nation-State of the Jewish People, the Supreme Court’s judgment in HCJ 5555/18, the estimate of the United Nations Conciliation Commission for Palestine, the census and media releases of the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics and the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, and a Mandate-era Arab memorandum reproduced by the University of North Carolina at Greensboro); then peer-reviewed research (Al-Qudsi, 2000; Leibler, 2014; Becker, Ascone and Troschke, 2022; Ozer, Obaidi and Bergh, 2025; Harber, Bulska, Malloy and Vila, 2026; the 2026 articles in Theoretical Inquiries in Law and Israel Affairs); then scholarly books (Morris, 2004; Pappé, 2006; Masalha, carried through a review published in Project MUSE).

Where the report measures discourse, in the section on how the framing appears in comment corpora and survey samples, it measures the discourse and the measured associations reported by the cited authors, in their own correlational terms, and not the underlying historical claim.

Uncertainty and scope, stated as facts about the record. The 1948 displacement figures are estimates, not enumerations, and no census of Mandate Palestine’s Arab population appears in the Palestinian statistical record, which holds censuses only for 1997, 2007 and 2017; figures before 1997 are modeled or back-estimated. Palestinian totals after 2017 are projections off the 2017 census, and the Bureau’s end-2025 Gaza figures are estimates it attributes to war deaths, missing persons, reduced births and out-migration. Israeli figures are the Central Bureau of Statistics’ own compiled counts, its Independence Day and Christmas estimates are preliminary, and it counts East Jerusalem residents and West Bank settlers inside Israel’s total, a scope choice distinct from the convention international monitors use. The Harber and Ozer findings and the Masalha figure are carried from an abstract and a review respectively, so full-text detail is not implied. The Knesset labels its English translation of the 2018 Basic Law unofficial, and the Declaration’s equality clause exists in two Israeli government translations differing on one word, so each quotation names the text it comes from. Where the literature disagrees, on whether displacement followed from a plan, the competing works are named in the body and neither is reported as settled: Morris (2004) against Pappé (2006) on the archives, and the two 2026 journal articles against each other on the settler-colonial category.

Conclusion

So did the movement’s success come at Arab expense? For Palestinian Arabs, the record answers with a count rather than an adjective: 710,000 driven out of the country and 40,000 displaced inside it in 1948 and 1949 on the commission’s estimate, roughly 700,000 in the archives Morris read, and a descendant population of 4,780,978 counted in the last census the Palestinian Bureau conducted, in 2017.

The rest of the answer is narrower than the phrase and more specific. The cost the record documents is concentrated on one population in one period, and the shares that travel with it, 80%, half, four-fifths, are shares of three different things. A Mandate-era Arab memorandum named the mechanism before the war in the language of purchase plus exclusion from employment. The founding text of 1948 promised Arab inhabitants full and equal citizenship and due representation; the Basic Law of 2018 reserved national self-determination exclusively to the Jewish People; the Supreme Court in 2021 let that law stand while stating a limit the Knesset may not cross. Israel’s own statistics now count 2.157 million Arabs among 10.244 million residents, and report labour force participation of 39.3% among Moslems in 2021 against 67.7% among Christians in 2024. On Jews from Arab countries, the state’s series classify by origin, recording 16.8% of surviving Holocaust-era victims as Morocco-born, and measure nothing about how that origin was valued. And on whether any of it was inherent to the movement, two 2026 journals argue the framework in print while two historians read one archive to opposite conclusions.

There is a further thing the measurement shows, and it belongs to the phrase rather than to the history. In a coded UK sample, denial of Jewish self-determination appeared in 7.7% of the antisemitic comments and sole-guilt attribution in 27.9%, and the preregistered survey work reports conspiracy beliefs implicating Israel and Zionists mediating the link between antisemitic and anti-Israel attitudes. A documented cost and a circulating frame are not the same object, and the second travels in company the first did not choose. Whether that company is doing work on the frame, turning a historical account of one population’s dispossession into something a comment section can use against Jews generally, is the question the counts in this report open and cannot close.

Frequently Asked Questions

Was Palestine’s Arab population ever counted in a full census before 1948?

Not in the Palestinian statistical record. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics has conducted three censuses, in 1997, 2007 and 2017, and its own documentation states that Palestinian figures for years before 1997 have no census basis, being modeled or back-estimated. Every pre-1948 population share therefore rests on a reconstruction rather than an enumeration.

How many people live in the West Bank and Gaza today, and who counts them?

The World Bank’s World Development Indicators give about 5.29 million for the West Bank and Gaza in 2024 (5,289,152), a projection off the Palestinian census of 2017. The Bank publishes the West Bank and Gaza as one combined economy and does not publish Gaza separately, and its post-October-2023 values carry the UN’s war-adjusted mortality treatment rather than a Bank measurement.

Does Israel’s 2018 Basic Law say anything about the Arabic language?

Yes. Clause 4 states that “Hebrew is the language of the State,” that “Arabic has a special status in the State,” and that “nothing in this article shall compromise the status given to the Arabic language in practice, before this basic-law came into force.” The Knesset labels its English translation of the law unofficial.

How many Jews live in Israel compared with the rest of the world?

Sergio DellaPergola, in the American Jewish Year Book 2024, estimates the world core Jewish population at 15,736,800 on 1 January 2024, of which Israel accounts for 7,153,000 and the Diaspora 8,583,800, with over 85% of the total living in Israel and the United States and another 14% in the 23 other countries holding 10,000 Jews or more. These are the author’s own estimates rather than an official government count.

Which Arab groups does Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics report separately?

The Bureau defines “Arabs” as Moslems, Arab Christians and Druze, and issues separate releases for each: 1.707 million Moslems at the end of 2021, approximately 152,000 Druze in February 2024, and a preliminary 184,200 Christians in December 2025, of whom 78.7% were Arab Christians at the end of 2024. Its “Others” category covers non-Arab Christians, other religions, and residents registered as not classified by religion.

What did Israel’s Declaration cite as the basis for the state?

Its own recitals name the First Zionist Congress of 1897 convened by Theodor Herzl, the Balfour Declaration of 2 November 1917, the League of Nations Mandate, and the UN General Assembly resolution of 29 November 1947, which the text calls a recognition that “is irrevocable.” Those are the founding document’s assertions about its own basis, not independent historical findings.

Sources

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  • Becker, M., Ascone, L., Troschke, H., 2022. Antisemitic Comments on Facebook Pages of Leading British, French, and German Media Outlets. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications. DOI 10.1057/s41599-022-01337-8. Peer-reviewed.
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  • Central Bureau of Statistics (Israel), 2023. The Population of Ethiopian Origin in Israel. Media Release 362/2023. cbs.gov.il. Official record.
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  • Theoretical Inquiries in Law, 2026. Article describing the Zionist movement as a settler-colonial project displacing roughly 80% of the indigenous Palestinian Arab inhabitants. Peer-reviewed.
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  • University of North Carolina at Greensboro. The Arab Case for Palestine (reproduced Mandate-era Arab memorandum). home.uncg.edu/~jwjones/islamicworld/readings/ArabCase.html. Primary historical document.
  • World Bank, 2024. World Development Indicators: West Bank and Gaza (SP.POP.TOTL). data.worldbank.org. Official record (compiled statistical series).

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