Data Reportby The Hanover InstituteNovember 9, 2026

What Are the Historical Patterns of Discrepancies in Gaza Casualty Reporting? Reading Four Wars’ Paired Tolls, the Ministry’s Own Lists and Two Estimates

Paired tolls from 2008, 2014 and 2021, the ministry’s own 2024 lists and two estimates show how far Gaza’s casualty counts have diverged.

What Are the Historical Patterns of Discrepancies in Gaza Casualty Reporting? Reading Four Wars’ Paired Tolls, the Ministry’s Own Lists and Two Estimates

In the three earlier Gaza wars for which Associated Press printed paired tolls on 26 October 2023, the Gaza Ministry of Health’s own count and the United Nations’ post-war count differed by 4 to 59 deaths. For 7 October 2023 to 30 June 2024, a peer-reviewed estimate (Jamaluddine and colleagues, 2025) ran 26,383 deaths above the ministry’s own reported total.

A death toll from Gaza usually reaches the public as one number, so the plain question is how far that number has sat from other bodies’ counts, and in which direction. The best-known measure of past accuracy, “1·5% to 3·8%”, comes from one uncited sentence in a 2023 Lancet letter whose own data covers 35 days of the current war. In this war, both published estimates run above the ministry’s count, and the ministry’s own lists show its method changing as hospitals stopped reporting.

Key Findings

  • Jamaluddine and colleagues (2025, peer-reviewed) estimated 64,260 traumatic-injury deaths in Gaza from 7 October 2023 to 30 June 2024 (95% CI 55,298 to 78,525). The Gaza Ministry of Health, a party to the war, reported 37,877 for the same date, a figure that is not independently verified.
  • The “1.5% to 3.8% in previous conflicts” range appears in a Lancet correspondence letter (Huynh, Chin and Spiegel, 2024) that carries no citation marker on that sentence. The range reproduces exactly from three dated count pairs only when each gap is taken as a share of the ministry’s own count.
  • The ministry’s own named lists show records labelled as notification by relatives rising from 2,478 of 21,323 (list to 29 March 2024) to 5,817 of 28,185 (list to 30 June 2024). These are the party’s own figures (Ministry of Health, Gaza, 2024 to 2026).
  • Children were 30% of the dead in 2023 to 2025 in the Palestinian Ministry of Health’s own annual report, a party’s count. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics projected children under 18 at 47% of Gaza’s pre-war population at mid-2023 (PCBS, 2023).
  • Crawford (2025, not peer-reviewed) relays a preprint household-survey estimate of 75,200 violent deaths in Gaza from 7 October 2023 to 5 January 2025.

How have gaps between Gaza casualty counts changed since 2008?

A peer-reviewed capture-recapture estimate by Jamaluddine and colleagues (The Lancet, 2025) put traumatic-injury deaths in Gaza from 7 October 2023 to 30 June 2024 at 64,260. That is 26,383 above the 37,877 the Gaza Ministry of Health reported for the same date, a party’s own count. In the three earlier wars with printed pairs, the gaps were measured in tens of deaths.

The direction of the prevailing account holds on the record: the gaps were small before 2023 and are far larger now. Associated Press printed three dated pairs on 26 October 2023. In 2008 the ministry counted 1,440 deaths against the UN’s 1,385, a gap of 55. In 2014 it counted 2,310 against 2,251, a gap of 59. In 2021 it counted 260 against 256, a gap of 4. The UN figures are post-war tolls of the UN humanitarian office, and they reach this report only through AP’s explainer.

Expressed as counts, the change is three orders of magnitude. Even the lower bound of the 2025 interval, 55,298, sits 17,421 above the ministry’s 30 June 2024 figure. As percentages, the comparison depends on the base. Jamaluddine and colleagues express their gap as 41% under-reporting, which is a share of their 64,260 estimate. The same 26,383 deaths are 70% of the ministry’s 37,877.

The two eras also differ in what is being compared. Before 2023, each pair set one body’s final count against another’s. The 2025 figure sets a statistical estimate of traumatic-injury deaths against a running wartime total. The estimate excludes deaths from disease, hunger and the collapse of health services, so it is not a total war death toll.

War or window Gap between counts Comparison
2008 55 deaths Ministry 1,440, UN 1,385, as printed by AP
2021 4 deaths Ministry 260, UN 256, as printed by AP
7 Oct 2023 to 30 Jun 2024 26,383 deaths Ministry 37,877, estimate 64,260

Source: Huynh, Chin and Spiegel, 2024, relaying Associated Press, 26 October 2023; Jamaluddine and colleagues, 2025. Ministry figures are a party’s own counts.

Who first expressed the ministry’s past accuracy as a percentage?

Huynh, Chin and Spiegel expressed it as a percentage in The Lancet, online 6 December 2023 (issue dated 6 January 2024). They wrote that ministry reporting differed from “independent United Nations analyses” by “1·5% to 3·8% in previous conflicts.” The letter is correspondence, editorially reviewed rather than peer-reviewed. The AP explainer it cites prints three count pairs and no percentage.

The full sentence reads: “The Gaza MoH has historically reported accurate mortality data, with discrepancies between MoH reporting and independent United Nations analyses ranging from 1·5% to 3·8% in previous conflicts.” In both the HTML and the typeset text, that sentence carries no reference marker of its own. Marker 1 and marker 2 close the sentence before it, and marker 2 closes the sentence after it, which gives the 2014 figure. That source, reference 2, is AP’s explainer by Isabel Debre, published 26 October 2023 and updated 6 November 2023. The one sentence behind the claim is therefore a calculation that the letter does not show.

The calculation holds. Four of 260 is 1.54%, and 55 of 1,440 is 3.82%. These print as the letter’s 1·5% and 3·8%.

The letter’s own measurement is narrower and recent. Over 35 days, from 7 October to 10 November 2023, it compared ministry-reported deaths with staff deaths reported by the UN relief agency for Palestine refugees: “Cumulative reported deaths were 101 UNRWA staff members and 11 078 Gazans over 35 days.” Its rate comparison reads: “the MoH mortality rates are lower than the rates reported for UNRWA staff (5·3 deaths per 1000 vs 7·8 deaths per 1000, as of Nov 10, 2023).” The first rate is over Gaza’s residents and the second over the agency’s Gaza staff, so these are two rates over two populations. The authors’ inference is that the staff rate exceeding the population rate is inconsistent with inflation of the ministry’s count.

Two limiting sentences go with that inference. The letter states that “mortality might have been under-reported by the Gaza MoH due to decreased capacity.” It also states that “difficulties obtaining accurate mortality figures should not be interpreted as intentionally misreported data.” Its title, “No evidence of inflated mortality reporting from the Gaza Ministry of Health,” records an absence of evidence for inflation. It does not state that the counts were verified.

How far apart were the published tolls in 2008 and 2021?

The Lancet letter’s 1.5% to 3.8% range comes from two of the pairs Associated Press printed on 26 October 2023, for the 2021 and 2008 wars.

For 2021, AP printed the ministry’s 260 against the UN’s 256; for 2008, 1,440 against 1,385. The range reproduces only when each gap is taken as a share of the Gaza Ministry of Health’s own count, a party’s figure. The letter never names that base.

Source: Huynh, Chin and Spiegel, 2024, correspondence; shares computed on the pairs it cites.

The 2014 pair is the unprinted middle of the range. A gap of 59 on the ministry’s 2,310 is 2.55%. The endpoints are the oldest and newest wars, not the largest and smallest conflicts.

The base matters. Taking the UN toll as the denominator, the same pairs give 1.6% for 2021, 2.6% for 2014 and 4.0% for 2008. Each figure printed in the letter reproduces on one denominator only, the ministry’s count, so a reader can state what the range is a share of.

“Previous conflicts” covers three wars. AP’s explainer prints 2008, 2014 and 2021 and gives no pair for the November 2012 conflict. The range therefore rests on three of the four Gaza wars between 2008 and 2021.

The word “independent” is the letter’s, and AP describes the UN tolls in other terms. AP writes that “the U.N. humanitarian office has published final death tolls based on its own research into medical records,” and that the ministry’s counts “have held up to U.N. scrutiny.” The medical records in Gaza are the ministry’s own hospital records. On this record, the UN tolls and the ministry’s counts are not established as coming from separate record systems, so the agreement of the pairs shows consistency between two counts. Whether it also shows that two separate sources confirm each other remains open.

What did Israel’s Foreign Ministry count for the 2014 war?

Israel’s Foreign Ministry counted 2,125 deaths in the 2014 Gaza war, as Associated Press printed it on 26 October 2023. The Gaza Ministry of Health counted 2,310. Each figure is a party’s own count, and neither is independently verified. The 185-death gap is the widest of the four pairs AP printed, and it is the only pair that sets one party’s count against the other’s.

Source: Huynh, Chin and Spiegel, 2024, correspondence, relaying the published pair.

Huynh, Chin and Spiegel state the comparison in a separate sentence from the 1.5% to 3.8% range: “A comparison between the Gaza MoH and Israeli Foreign Ministry mortality figures for the 2014 war yielded an 8·0% discrepancy.” That sentence closes on reference marker 2, the AP explainer. A gap of 185 is 8.0% of the Gaza ministry’s 2,310 and 8.7% of Israel’s 2,125. As with the earlier range, the printed figure uses the Gaza ministry’s count as its base.

For 2014, AP printed three numbers: 2,310 from the Gaza ministry, 2,251 from the UN and 2,125 from Israel’s Foreign Ministry. The UN toll falls between the two party counts. It sits 59 below the Gaza ministry’s count and 126 above Israel’s. Of the two parties, the Gaza ministry’s count is closer to the UN toll.

On the record available here, the 8.0% figure has a narrow basis. It is one war, two parties and two totals, published in a press explainer that gives no definitions for either count. The pair does not show whether the two governments counted the same population, used the same cut-off date or applied the same inclusion rules for people who died later of injuries. Each total is the issuing government’s own reporting, and the earlier record contains no third count built from separate records that could decide between them.

When did the ministry stop counting only hospital records?

The Gaza Ministry of Health’s own lists show a second, non-hospital stratum. Records labelled as notification by relatives rose from 2,478 in the list to 29 March 2024 to 5,817 in the list to 30 June 2024. The March list sets its Gaza City hospital coverage at 10 November 2023. These are the ministry’s own figures as a party to the war, not independently verified.

The ministry’s published named lists carry a source column with two labels. The first, “سجلات وزارة الصحة,” means Ministry of Health records. The second, “تبليغ ذوي الشهداء,” means notification by the martyrs’ relatives. The list to 29 March 2024 holds 21,323 records: 18,845 ministry records and 2,478 relatives’ notifications. Its closing footnote fixes coverage of ministry-registered deaths at 10 November 2023 for Gaza City and at 29 March 2024 for the south, except Nasser hospital, which runs to 14 February 2024. The list to 30 June 2024 holds 28,185 records: 22,368 ministry records and 5,817 relatives’ notifications.

Source: Ministry of Health, Gaza, named lists posted 3 April and 24 July 2024.

The ministry also stated the gap in its own coverage. On 7 January 2024 it said that victims in Gaza City and North Gaza after its information system stopped in November were not counted. Jamaluddine and colleagues (2025) describe the channel that added relatives’ reports: a rolling online mortality survey that the ministry launched on 1 January 2024.

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a Washington-based research institute, wrote in 2024 that the ministry had begun incorporating deaths identified through media reports after hospitals in the north stopped functioning. The two published lists that carry a source column use only the two labels above, and no media label appears in either.

The schema changes between rounds. The list to 30 April 2024 holds 24,682 records but drops both the source column and the date of birth, and it adds an address column. For that round, the split between the two channels cannot be read from the document.

How far did a peer-reviewed estimate run above the wartime count?

Jamaluddine and colleagues estimated 64,260 traumatic-injury deaths in Gaza between 7 October 2023 and 30 June 2024 (95% CI 55,298 to 78,525). Their peer-reviewed capture-recapture analysis appeared in The Lancet on 9 January 2025. The Gaza Ministry of Health, a party to the war, reported 37,877 deaths for the same date, a count not independently verified.

Capture-recapture estimates a total from how often the same people appear across separate lists. The study combined three lists. The first was ministry hospital morgue records, with 22,368 identified decedents. The second was the ministry’s online mortality survey, with 5,817 individual decedents. The third was obituary pages on social media, gathered by hand. The authors averaged alternative statistical models across the overlaps between the three lists.

The first two inputs match the ministry’s own provenance labels exactly. The ministry’s list to 30 June 2024 divides into 22,368 ministry records and 5,817 relatives’ notifications, the same two figures. The estimate is therefore built on the two strata of the ministry’s document plus one outside list. The study and the ministry are not two separate counts of the same deaths. The authors describe two of the three inputs as self-reported.

The 41% under-reporting the paper states is a share of its estimate, not a multiplier. The gap of 26,383 is 41% of 64,260. Multiplying 37,877 by 1.41 would give a figure the paper does not contain. The study also excluded 9,692 unidentified decedents in the ministry’s 30 June 2024 update, 26% of the ministry’s cumulative total at that date, and 930 people reported missing in the survey list.

Source: Jamaluddine and colleagues, 2025; Ministry of Health, Gaza, daily report of 30 June 2024.

The scope is narrow. The paper states that its rate ratio holds “even when ignoring non-injury excess mortality.” The “more than 70,000” attributed to the study in press coverage is the authors’ own extrapolation in the paper’s research-in-context box. It applies the same under-reporting rate to the ministry’s October 2024 figure of 41,909 and is worded “probably exceeded 70 000.” It is not the capture-recapture estimate. The interval is wide: its upper bound is 23,227 above its lower bound.

How has the ministry revised its total after publication?

The Gaza Ministry of Health added 280 records to its cumulative total on 30 August 2025. It described them as records completed and approved by a judicial committee following relatives’ notifications and the missing-persons file, not as new deaths. This is the ministry’s own figure as a party to the war, not independently verified.

Date posted Records added Basis the ministry stated
23 March 2025 233 Completed and approved by the judicial committee
30 August 2025 280 Completed and approved by the judicial committee
August 2026 160 Approved by the martyrs’ approval committee

Source: Ministry of Health, Gaza, media office channel, messages 6377, 6900 and 7600. A party’s own statements.

The ministry also revises dates within the list. On 29 July 2024 it stated that a date of death had been registered either on the family’s report or on the date the body reached the hospital. It said a committee was formed to audit the actual dates, and the committee found that some people who were under 18 when they died had been registered months later.

The ministry’s own reconciliation is off by one day. On 24 July 2024 it gave 28,185 records with complete data and 9,715 whose data was not yet complete, as of 30 June 2024. Those two figures sum to 37,900, the total in the daily report of 1 July 2024. The 30 June report gives 37,877. Subtracting 28,185 from 37,877 leaves 9,692, the unidentified count Jamaluddine and colleagues excluded, not the 9,715 the ministry stated.

The same one-day offset appears in the Palestinian Ministry of Health’s Health Annual Report, Palestine 2024. It gives 45,553 deaths and 108,379 injuries for the period between 7 October 2023 and 31 December 2024. Those are the figures in the Gaza ministry’s daily report of 1 January 2025. The report of 30 December 2024 gives 45,541, and no daily report was issued on 31 December. A ministry figure for the end of a period matches the next morning’s report in both cases.

The ministry defines its two counts differently. Its general total counts everyone who reached the hospitals. Its complete-data count covers only the people whose records it has finished. Records can therefore move from the first count into the second months after the death. As a result, the difference between a named list and a cumulative total on the same date does not give a count of unidentified people.

Does the reported share of children match Gaza’s pre-war age structure?

Children were 30% of the dead in 2023 to 2025 in the Palestinian Ministry of Health’s Health Annual Report, Palestine 2025, against a stated total of 71,271. That is a party’s count, not independently verified. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS), also a party to the events, projected children under 18 at 47% of Gaza’s population at mid-2023.

Source: Ministry of Health, Gaza, 2024 to 2026 (Health Annual Report 2025, Graph 2); PCBS, 2023.

The same graph in the annual report gives women 16%, the elderly 7% and men 47%. The report draws on the Gaza ministry’s own reports, so it is a second ministry publication of the same count, not a separate check. In an earlier statement, on 23 March 2025, the ministry’s Director General gave 15,613 children among 50,021 dead, which is 31.2% of that total.

The PCBS share is a projection, not a count. It represents 1,046,400 children out of a projected 2,226,544 residents, projected from the 1 December 2017 census, and PCBS labels the figures “Revised Estimated.” It is also pre-war. PCBS later revised Gaza’s population downward because of deaths, missing persons, departures and fewer births, by 6% on its own wording and to a figure 10.0% below the pre-war projection by mid-2025. A share of children among wartime deaths, set against the 47%, compares a wartime count with a pre-war base.

Jamaluddine and colleagues (2025) measure a different category on a different base. They report that 59.1% of the 28,257 deaths with age and sex data were women, children under 18 and people aged 65 and over. That combined share applies to its own 28,257 deaths and cannot be read as a share of the 64,260 estimate.

The composition of the dead is published in these sources as cumulative shares. None of the publications cited here gives an early-war against late-war breakdown that would show how the share of children changed over time.

Do survey-based estimates point above or below the ministry’s count?

A household-survey estimate by Spagat, Pedersen, Shikaki, Robbins, Bendavid, Hegre and Guha-Sapir put violent deaths in Gaza from 7 October 2023 to 5 January 2025 at 75,200. The estimate is a medRxiv preprint, relayed by Crawford (Costs of War, Brown University, 7 October 2025). It is above the Gaza Ministry of Health’s own reported total for the same period.

Source: Ministry of Health, Gaza, daily report of 1 January 2025; Crawford, 2025, relaying a preprint estimate.

The closest ministry figure is 45,553 in its daily report of 1 January 2025, a party’s count not independently verified. That is four days before the survey window closes, so the two figures do not share an end date. Read with that offset, the survey estimate is about 29,600 deaths above the ministry’s total. The same preprint, as Crawford relays it, puts indirect deaths, from causes such as disrupted care, at 4,540 to 12,500 over the same window. These figures belong to the preprint’s authors. Crawford’s paper did not produce them.

Crawford reports the direction in these words: “Recent analysis by public health experts suggests that the number of fatalities reported by the Gaza Ministry of Health, which faces many obstacles to making a full account of the deaths, may be a significant undercount of the violent deaths.” Crawford’s paper is a university research report, not peer-reviewed, and it collects no casualty data of its own.

Crawford also compiles the ministry’s own count of 67,075 killed and 169,430 injured to 3 October 2025. The figures pass from the ministry to a UN dashboard and then to the paper. The paper’s “more than 10%” refers to killed and injured combined, 236,505 people, against a pre-war population of about 2.2 million. It is not a share of the population killed.

Both estimates in this report point the same way. The capture-recapture estimate (Jamaluddine and colleagues, 2025) and the household-survey preprint both sit above the ministry’s contemporaneous totals, using different methods over different windows. The survey estimate does not depend on the ministry’s lists, while the capture-recapture estimate is built partly on them.

Methodology and limitations

The evidence falls into five source types, each labelled where it first appears.

  • Official records of a party. These are the Gaza Ministry of Health’s named lists to 29 March, 30 April, 30 June and 31 August 2024; its daily statistical reports; its statements about completeness and exclusions; and the Palestinian Ministry of Health’s annual reports for 2024 and 2025. The ministry publishes these only through its media office channel. The four list documents were read from a public mirror whose file size, record counts and columns match the ministry’s own descriptions.
  • Official statistics of a party. These are the population projections and age structure from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, published in 2023.
  • Peer-reviewed research. This is the capture-recapture study by Jamaluddine and colleagues (2025).
  • Journal correspondence. This is the Lancet letter by Huynh, Chin and Spiegel (2024), which was editorially reviewed and not peer-reviewed.
  • Reports, a preprint, press and policy analysis. These are Crawford’s university report (2025, not peer-reviewed); the preprint by Spagat and colleagues, as Crawford relays it; AP’s explainer, which is international press; and the Washington Institute’s analysis, which is named only for the position it states.

The UN figures in the pre-2023 pairs are tolls published by the UN humanitarian office. They reach this report only through AP. They are reported as AP printed them, and they are not used as evidence in their own right.

The percentages for the earlier wars, 2.55% for 2014 and the alternative-base figures of 1.6%, 2.6%, 4.0% and 8.7%, are the Institute’s arithmetic on the printed pairs, and the base is named each time. A search of the biomedical and preprint literature and the open web on 10 September 2026 found no peer-reviewed study comparing a pre-2023 ministry count with another body’s count. The nearest item, Vaktskjold and colleagues (2016), reviews non-war mortality records in Gaza for July to September 2014 and makes no comparison between two bodies’ counts.

Five limits apply to the current war:

  • The capture-recapture interval is wide, at 55,298 to 78,525.
  • The capture-recapture estimate covers traumatic injury only.
  • Two of its three input lists are strata of the ministry’s own document.
  • The survey estimate has not completed peer review in the form relayed here.
  • The PCBS age share is a projection from the 2017 census, made before the war.

Conclusion

Over time, how far has Gaza’s one reported number sat from other counts? Before 2023, it sat close: 55, 59 and 4 deaths from the UN’s tolls in 2008, 2014 and 2021, and 185 from Israel’s own count in 2014. Since 2023, the distance has grown to tens of thousands of deaths, with both published estimates running above the Gaza Ministry of Health’s own reported totals.

The record supports several firm points. The well-known 1.5% to 3.8% figure is accurate arithmetic on three wars’ pairs, published as a percentage in a 2023 letter without a citation marker, and it uses the ministry’s own count as its base. The widest pre-2023 gap is the 2014 pair between the two parties’ own counts. In the current war, the ministry’s method changed in ways its own documents record. Hospital coverage for Gaza City ended on 10 November 2023, relatives’ notifications grew from 2,478 to 5,817 records in three months, and approval committees added records long after the deaths. Against that changing count, a peer-reviewed estimate reached 64,260 traumatic-injury deaths, and a preprint survey reached 75,200 violent deaths. In the ministry’s own publications, which are a party’s figures, children were 30% of the dead, against a pre-war projected 47% of the population.

The question the record raises concerns verification. For past wars, accuracy rests on three pairs drawn partly from the same hospital records. For the present war, the strongest test is an estimate built in part from the ministry’s own lists. What would a count of Gaza’s dead need, in records, access and outside review, before a society could treat it as checked by a source other than the body that produced it?

Frequently Asked Questions

Does the ministry’s list record when each person died?

No. The four lists to 29 March, 30 April, 30 June and 31 August 2024 carry name, identity or document number, age, sex and, in three of the four, date of birth, but none has a date-of-death column (Ministry of Health, Gaza, 2024 to 2026). The ministry stated on 29 July 2024 that dates of death were registered on a family’s report or on arrival at a hospital.

Which deaths does the ministry’s count leave out?

The ministry listed five exclusions on 7 January 2024 and has not withdrawn them. They are the missing and people trapped under rubble; unidentified people who reached hospitals; unidentified bodies handed over by Israel; burials by families that did not pass through a hospital; and deaths in Gaza City and North Gaza after its information system stopped in November 2023. Its daily report of 10 September 2026 records 831 bodies recovered from rubble since the ceasefire.

Does the ministry separate combatants from civilians?

No. The ministry’s lists contain no combatant or civilian field, and Crawford (2025) notes that the ministry publishes no such breakdown. The civilian share in Crawford’s own table comes from Israeli military data reported in the press, and a footnote in the paper flags it as an assumption.

Does the 64,260 estimate include deaths from hunger or disease?

No. Jamaluddine and colleagues (2025) estimate deaths from traumatic injury only, and exclude deaths from disrupted healthcare, food insecurity, failures of water and sanitation, and disease. Even on that narrower count, they report a rate ratio of 14.0 (95% CI 12.8 to 17.6) against all-cause mortality in 2022.

How many people died in Gaza in a typical pre-war year?

Huynh, Chin and Spiegel (2024) relay a figure from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics of an average of 4,884 registered deaths per year in Gaza in 2015 to 2019. That is peacetime civil registration and cannot be set directly against wartime hospital and morgue counts, whose reporting periods and sources differ.

Where does the ministry publish its casualty lists?

The Gaza Ministry of Health publishes them through its media office’s messaging channel. Its government website has posted no file since 21 October 2023 (Ministry of Health, Gaza, 2024 to 2026). Its annual reports for 2024 and 2025 appear on a Ramallah-run ministry site.

What is the ministry’s most recent cumulative total?

The ministry’s daily report of 10 September 2026 gives 73,670 cumulative deaths and 174,682 cumulative injuries. This is its own count as a party to the war, not independently verified. Of those deaths, 1,359 are recorded after the ceasefire of 11 October.

Sources

  • Crawford, N. C., 2025. The Human Toll of the Gaza War: Direct and Indirect Death from 7 October 2023 to 3 October 2025. Costs of War project, Watson School of International and Public Affairs, Brown University. https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/paper/HumanTollGaza. University research report, not peer-reviewed.
  • Debre, I., 2023. What is Gaza’s Ministry of Health and how does it calculate the war’s death toll? Associated Press, 26 October 2023, updated 6 November 2023. apnews.com, article ending death-toll-59470820308b31f1faf73c703400b033. International press.
  • Huynh, B. Q., Chin, E. T., Spiegel, P. B., 2024. No evidence of inflated mortality reporting from the Gaza Ministry of Health. The Lancet, 403(10421), 23 to 24 (online 6 December 2023). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)02713-7, PMID 38070526. Correspondence, editorially reviewed, not peer-reviewed.
  • Jamaluddine, Z., Abukmail, H., Aly, S., Campbell, O. M. R., Checchi, F., 2025. Traumatic injury mortality in the Gaza Strip from Oct 7, 2023, to June 30, 2024: a capture-recapture analysis. The Lancet, 405(10477), 469 to 477. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)02678-3, PMID 39799952. Peer-reviewed.
  • Ministry of Health, Gaza, 2024 to 2026. Named martyr lists to 29 March, 30 April, 30 June and 31 August 2024; daily statistical reports; completeness and exclusion statements. Ministry media office channel, https://t.me/MOHMediaGaza. Official record of a party to the war, not independently verified.
  • Ministry of Health (Palestine), 2025. Health Annual Report, Palestine 2025 (and Health Annual Report, Palestine 2024). https://site.moh.ps/index/Books/BookType/2/Language/ar. Official record of a party to the events.
  • Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, 2023. Palestinian Child Day release, 5 April 2023 (https://www.pcbs.gov.ps/en/post-details/?postId=20415), and World Population Day release, 10 July 2023 (https://www.pcbs.gov.ps/portals/_pcbs/PressRelease/Press_En_IntPopulationDy2023E.pdf). Official statistics of a party to the events.
  • Spagat, M., Pedersen, J., Shikaki, K., Robbins, M., Bendavid, E., Hegre, H., Guha-Sapir, D., 2025. Household-survey estimate of violent and indirect deaths in Gaza, 7 October 2023 to 5 January 2025, as cited in Crawford (2025). medRxiv. Preprint.
  • Vaktskjold, A., and colleagues, 2016. Chart review of non-war mortality in the Gaza Strip, July to September 2014. Conflict and Health. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13031-016-0077-6. Peer-reviewed.
  • Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2024. Gaza Fatality Data Has Become Completely Unreliable. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/gaza-fatality-data-has-become-completely-unreliable. Policy analysis, research institute.

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